Overview of Bitcoin’s Bearish Trend: Why the Market Is Pulling Back and What Comes Next

Over the last few weeks, Bitcoin has entered a clear bearish phase, with multiple technical setups triggering downside targets across nearly every timeframe. Many traders are asking the same questions:

• Is Bitcoin entering a deeper correction?

• How much lower can price go?

• Are we near a bounce—or just getting started?

• Has the cycle topped?

This detailed breakdown explains the full picture:
the bearish signals, the multi-timeframe setups, upcoming downside targets, why a bounce is still likely, and the key levels Bitcoin needs to hold.

Let’s dive in.

New Bitcoin Targets Revealed!

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📉 Daily Price Action Shows Weakness—but Tradable Patterns Remain

Bitcoin’s recent behavior is part of a statistically measurable pattern.

Monday Price Performance Stats

Since the 2023 bull market began:

• 54% of Mondays have closed green

• Average Monday gain: +2.34%

• Average Monday loss: –1.89%

This creates short-term scalpable setups:

✔ Upside interest zone: ~$96,000
✔ Downside interest zone: ~$92,500

These Monday statistics don’t produce “home run” trades—but they often produce high-probability scalps when price first touches major levels.

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🔻 A Multi-Timeframe Bearish Setup Is Driving This Correction

The main driver of the current downturn is a recurring technical pattern involving two EMAs:

• 4-period EMA (red)

• 21-period EMA (yellow)

Whenever the 4 EMA crosses below the 21 EMA, Bitcoin historically moves to the:

👉 55 EMA (green) as a corrective target.

This setup triggered:

• On the 12-hour

• On the daily

• On the 2-day

• On the 3-day

• And most recently, the 5-day

Every single one has hit its downside objective.

This isn’t a trading strategy—it’s directional bias, not a mechanical system.
But its consistency across many timeframes builds a strong bearish narrative.

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📉 Higher-Timeframe Charts Point to Lower Targets (8-Day, 10-Day, 12-Day)

Once we move beyond the 5-day chart, reliability decreases—but the signals still matter.

8-Day Timeframe

The 4/21 EMA cross is about to trigger again.

Target:
➡ $88,500 on CME
This level has never failed historically on CME’s limited data—but again, fewer data points means less statistical confidence.

10-Day Timeframe

The next target sits around:

➡ $91,500

This zone is significant because it aligns with:

• A major CME gap from April

• A long-standing inefficiency in price

• The 377 EMA support

Expect a bounce reaction here, even inside a downtrend.

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📉 The 12-Day Chart Points Even Lower ($83K–$85K)

The 12-day timeframe has one of the strongest long-term records:

✔ Nearly every 4/21 EMA cross has eventually hit the 55 EMA
✔ Target sits at $83,000–$85,000
✔ This target activates only if Bitcoin closes the week below $98,200

If Bitcoin closes:

• Above $98,200 → the deeper targets weaken

• Below $98,200 → the deeper targets strengthen

This weekly close is critical.

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📈 Are We Due for a Bounce? Yes—Conditions Are Building

Despite the bearish trend, Bitcoin is setting up for a relief bounce.

Why?

Because of the HPDR (Historical Price Distribution Range) and volatility metrics:

✔ Bitcoin is extremely stretched below its median return
✔ Volatility (BBWP) is extremely high
✔ When volatility peaks and then contracts → price snaps back toward the median

This pattern called the October bounce at $100K and several other moves this cycle.

But: volatility has not started contracting yet.
Do not front-run the bounce.

Once BBWP turns down → high probability of a move back to:

➡ $98K–$101K (retest zone)

Until then, downside continuation is still on the table.

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🔎 Bullish Divergence May Be Forming—But It’s Weak

The daily chart could print bullish divergence if:

• Price makes a lower low

• RSI makes a higher low

This would support a bounce, but not a full reversal.

Bounce target:
➡ $98,000
→ Maybe $100,000 in an optimistic scenario

Reversal target:
❌ Not in play yet

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📉 Stochastic Momentum Remains Bearish

The daily stochastic is deep in the bearish control zone.

It will stay bearish until Bitcoin closes above:

➡ $100,000

Momentum can’t stay pinned down forever—but while it sits here:

👉 Downside is still the dominant trend.

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📉 The Trend Is Bearish on Every Timeframe Except the Monthly

This is the most important macro point:

• 12h → down

• Daily → down

• 3-day → down

• 5-day → down

• Weekly → down

• Monthly → still up

The monthly is the last bullish timeframe.
If that flips, the argument for a cycle top gains real weight.

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📉 Has the Bitcoin Cycle Topped? It’s Not a Crazy View

The analyst in the transcript admits something important:

“If you think the cycle is over, you’re not out of line.”

This isn’t 2024 anymore.
Many of the classic top signals are here:

• High-timeframe EMA crosses

• Bearish divergences

• Exhaustion signals

• Failed breakout structure

• Loss of key moving averages

This is the first time he’s openly acknowledging the possibility that:

👉 The cycle top may be in.

That said, the monthly close will decide it.

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💡 Take Profits — Don’t Be Greedy

If you bought Bitcoin at:

• $20K

• $25K

• $30K

• $40K

You are sitting on life-changing gains.

Whether the bull is over or not:

✔ Taking partial profits is wise
✔ You can always buy back later
✔ You never go broke locking in gains
✔ You reduce emotional pressure

Greed destroys portfolios.

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⚠️ A Final Warning About Scams

The transcript ends with a story about a scam involving a hijacked Discord link that drained user wallets.

The key takeaway:

💥 Never click a link in a Discord announcement unless you verify it from multiple official sources.
💥 If it sounds urgent, limited, or time-sensitive — assume it’s a scam.

Scammers prey on FOMO.
Always protect your assets.

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🎯 Final Thoughts — A Bearish Trend With a Bounce Ahead

Here is the most accurate summary of Bitcoin’s situation:

• Trend: Bearish

• Momentum: Bearish

• High-timeframe setups: Bearish

• Bounce probability: High

• Reversal probability: Low (for now)

• Key weekly level: $98,200

• Key bounce target: $98K–$101K

• Key downside targets:

  • $91.5K

  • $88.5K

  • $83K–$85K

Nothing about this is guaranteed.

But based on current signals, the most likely path is:

📉 More downside →
📈 Relief bounce →
📉 Potential deeper correction →
📈 Macro trend reassessment

Trade safely. Manage risk. Take profits.
And never let emotion drive your decisions.